By J.C. Bruce
Republicans currently command supermajorities in both the Florida House and Senate, so they can do whatever they please with virtually no checks.
But only a small change in the makeup of both legislative bodies would disrupt that monopoly and its inevitable corruption.
And Democratic candidates around the state have a decent shot at making that difference.
That’s not only the assessment of Democratic activists, but also the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, which publishes the respected Sabato’s Crystal Ball—a political forecast newsletter.
A blue wave is changing the national outlook, they report in their final prediction before the election, with 10 state legislatures across the country shifting in favor of Democrats.
While Republicans in Florida are “likely” to remain in control, their numbers could erode:
After a years-long decline in Florida, Democrats have perked up in 2026, with a competitive gubernatorial race and a somewhat competitive Senate race. While the GOP has built a 1.5 million voter registration edge, Democrats gained more registered voters than Republicans in September for the first time in five years.
While flipping either chamber seems like a long shot, the environment gives Democrats a somewhat better chance to break the GOP’s supermajorities—which would require single-digit net gains—than was expected a few months ago.
By the numbers:
The Florida House of Representatives has 120 members, and every seat is up for grabs. Republicans currently hold more than two-thirds of those seats, as they do in the Senate, where 20 of the 40 seats are on the ballot.
The upshot is that Democrats need to win seven more seats in the House and only one in the Senate to break up the supermajorities.
Why are supermajorities bad—besides the fact that they belong to Republicans at the moment?
Because they let the G.O.P. pass laws, set procedural rules, and push legislation through without Democratic input. They can fast-track bills, making it easier to propose constitutional amendments, and they have a clear path to impose unfunded mandates on local communities. And, dreadfully, it makes it easier for them to enact additional exemptions to the state’s open records statutes, thus making Tallahassee even less transparent than it already is.
So what’s the Democrats’ plan to fix this?
Pretty simple. It started earlier this year with volunteer efforts to recruit candidates, aiming to ensure no Republican running for the House or Senate got a free ride and that they had to face a Democratic challenger.
The effort was largely successful, and dozens of candidates were recruited—so many, in fact, that by the end of the qualifying period more Democrats were unopposed by Republicans on the ballot than the other way around.
One leader of that effort was Margie Stein of Naples and her Project 140, which we wrote extensively about in the Tropic Press newsletter earlier this year. Another volunteer, Sara Miller, created a spinoff of that effort: Florida 180, a grassroots initiative mainly focused on Florida’s East Coast.
Both organizers are hopeful about Democrats’ chances.
“Our best hope is to break up the supermajority,” Miller told me. In the end, “we’re going to see more Democrats in the state Legislature.”
Republicans are spending much more on legislative races this cycle than usual, she asserted. “I can tell you, they must be nervous.”
Stein agreed. “The Republicans are freaking out,” she said. But as always, turnout will be key.
On the one hand, optimistic Democrats are hoping—really counting on—disaffected Republicans to stay home on Election Day. Donald Trump’s plummeting approval rating, his foreign adventurism in Iran, rising fuel prices, general unaffordability—and let’s not forget the Epstein Files, the ballroom, and general self-dealing—all could lead to a depressed Republican turnout.
But Democrats and independents have to step up, with Republicans enjoying a massive voter registration lead.
“I think that all of these seats are going to be razor thin,” Stein said. Adding:
“It’s going to depend on the Democrats who choose the sofa on Election Day. We need them to show up. That will make it or break it.”
A handful of races will make the difference: legislative districts where Trump won in the presidential election, but narrowly enough that Democrats now have a chance.
Independent journalist Jason Garcia has done an extensive analysis of the House and Senate seats up for grabs and where the most likely opportunities exist.
I republished his report today on the Tropic Press website, and I encourage you to take a look for a deeper dive. Here’s also a link to Jason’s Seeking Rents newsletter on Substack:
The races that will decide the fate of the supermajorities in the state Legislature
News2Use
Need to find your polling place or contact your elections office? Check out the latest section on the Tropic Press website, News2Use, a handy reference library with links to useful voting information.
Thanks for your support
Since we launched this newsletter a year ago, thousands of subscribers have joined the Tropic Press community, making it one of the fastest-growing publications of its kind.
Our goal is to reach as many voters as possible, increase engagement in the political process, and, hopefully, raise interest in voting.
If you are encountering this newsletter for the first time, please consider subscribing. If you are already a subscriber, consider upgrading your subscription to help this work continue.
Regardless, every person you share this with is one more potential vote for change.
Please share —and hit the repost button below —to help us make Florida and America better for all of us.
Thanks.
J.C. Bruce
This is a superb reason to vote against your Republican legislator, even if he or she is doing a good job, which is doubtful, given the shameful record of the Florida Legislature under Republicans. Vote blue!