Florida Democratic candidates for governor and Senate closing in on likely Republicans
News and commentary for Floridians and thoughtful Americans
Florida Democrats running for governor and U.S. Senate—the marquis races in the November midterm election—are narrowing the gap with their likely Republican opponents.
This is according to a poll conducted by the University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab, which also found that affordability is the issue of greatest concern for most Floridians and that Donald Trump’s approval rating is nearly evenly divided—45 percent view him favorably, 48 percent do not.
The pollsters asked respondents how they would likely vote in the governor and Senate races.
In the governor’s race, the pollsters matched the frontrunners for the Democratic nomination—David Jolly and Jerry Demings—against U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds, who leads the Republican pack of G.O.P. candidates and who has been endorsed by Trump.
Whether it’s Jolly or Demings, it’s close, according to responses from likely voters.
Donalds leads both at this point, but only by single digits: Donalds is ahead by a mere 6 percentage points against Jolly and 7 against Demings.
In the Senate race, Democratic frontrunners Alex Vindman and Angie Nixon were pitted against the appointed incumbent U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody.
Again, the Republican incumbent’s marginal lead is in single digits: Moody leads Vindman by 8 points and Nixon by 7 points.
Interestingly, a majority of poll respondents never heard of either Vindman (66 percent) or Nixon (74 percent), yet both are running close to the well-known incumbent. And it’s early days.
While it is true that Democrats have not won a statewide election since 2018, and there hasn’t been a Democratic governor in this century, midterm elections often favor of the party out of power in the White House.
Said another way, and in particular for this year, the election will likely turn on voters’ assessment of Donald Trump’s presidency, which is underwater both in Florida and even more greatly nationally.
“At least at this stage in these races, vote choice is much more about partisanship than candidate identity,” Sean Freeder, director of UNF’s Public Opinion Research Lab and political science professor, said.
“Republicans still enjoy a clear advantage with Florida voters, but it doesn’t yet appear as strong as in previous years, perhaps unsurprising given that the party of the president usually struggles more in midterm elections.”
Here is a link to the University of North Florida polling site where you can read all about this firsthand. There were other questions asked in the poll of 786 likely midterm election voters, too, including on issues of gun regulation and marijuana legalization.
One point to underscore: If this holds up, it portends a tight election with the usual partisan divides. But here’s a data point to consider:
Among voters who are unaffiliated with either the Democratic or Republican parties—independents or, as they are called in Florida, voters with No Party Affiliation (NPAs), only 31 percent view Trump favorably, with 48 percent saying their opinion of the president is unfavorable.
In close elections, these independent voters can be decisive. And in Florida, they are a large voting bloc.
Independents and minor party members comprise 3.8 million voters or 28 percent of the total.
While Republicans hold a large lead over Democrats in voter registration, it would be foolhardy on their part to assume that margin will be enough to carry them in the election with such a large independent voting block up for grabs.
Especially in light of how close these polling numbers are.
All of which speaks to a great opportunity for Democrats, and it’s fair to guess that this data will be a persuasive selling point with potential donors and supporters.
Campaign websites:
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Im republican but any common sence has my vote for democrats until the Republicans get thier act together.
Jolly's father was a Baptist preacher. That's how he campaigns. I believe he has a shot.