Florida governor's race narrows as Democrat David Jolly is now virtually uncontested, and Byron Donalds dominates the G.O.P.

News and commentary from a Florida perspective

David Jolly and Byron Donalds

By J.C. Bruce

Tropic Press

The race to determine who will be Florida’s next governor has been disrupted by the news that one of the top two contenders for the Democratic nomination is dropping out.

And there are rumors that the frontrunner among Republicans has such a huge lead in money and popularity that the G.O.P. may cancel a scheduled debate among the party’s candidates.

Jerry Demings, the well-known Democratic mayor of Orange County, announced last week that he is suspending his campaign and withdrawing from the race to focus on “health issues.” He revealed he has been diagnosed with prostate cancer.

That leaves David Jolly, a former Pinellas County Republican congressman, now turned Democrat, as the all-but-certain nominee for the Democratic Party in the midterm election. There are a handful of other declared candidates listed on the Secretary of State’s website, but none can be considered serious contenders, although Jolly may still face one or more of them in the August 18 primary.

The week-long period in which candidates must qualify to run begins today and ends June 12, at which time we’ll know what the primary lineup will be.

Both Jolly and Demings had polled within single digits of the also all-but-certain Republican nominee, U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds of Naples. While Donalds faces several challengers for the Republican nomination, he has been outdistancing everyone—including Jolly—in fundraising and is the clear leader in the G.O.P. contest.

In fact, Politico published an article last week entitled “Sunshine State Letdown?” in which they speculated that a scheduled debate between the Republican candidates entitled “Sunshine State Showdown’” may not happen . Why? Because Donalds’ two main opponents may not qualify for lack of polling numbers and financing.

They are former House Speaker Paul Renner and Lt. Gov. Jay Collins.

Said Donalds of his competitors: “When you’re talking about debates, I mean, you actually have to have a campaign.”

Ouch.

Jolly was more sympathetic to his erstwhile opponent:

“Jerry has dedicated his life to public service, fighting with passion, mettle, and faith. I know he’ll bring that same spirit to this new chapter,” Jolly said. “Laura and I wish him a full recovery as we personally pray for Jerry and his family.”

Newsweek magazine asked the question that’s now on many people’s minds: Who gains the most from Demings leaving the race? Their answer:

Demings’ exit affects multiple groups. For Democrats, it forces a recalibration of strategy and messaging, especially in Central Florida, where Demings had strong name recognition. For independents, many of whom were undecided in (recent) polls, the race now presents a different set of choices. For Donalds, the departure removes a challenger who had polled slightly better than Jolly—though both Democrats kept the race within single digits.

Demings’ decision also underscores the uncertainty of a race still months away from Election Day. While Republicans maintain structural advantages, Democrats remain within striking distance, and the absence of Demings introduces new variables into a contest that was already more competitive than expected.

The June 12 qualifying deadline mentioned earlier also applies to candidates for the state Legislature, where volunteer groups have been working feverishly to round up Democrats to run so that Republicans don’t get a free ride with no opponents on the ballot.

Those efforts, including those of Project 140, which I’ve written about previously, have been successful in lining up people willing to run. Now, they are in a race to find the funds needed to qualify—about $1,800 per candidate.

If you’d like to help ensure that no Republican gets a free pass, and maybe even help bust up the G.O.P.’s supermajority in the Legislature, you can do so by donating here:

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It’s easy to feel overwhelmed if you are a rational person living in the Free State of Florida, but there are plenty of smart, reasonable people just like you here. The purpose of this newsletter and the Tropic Press website is to provide a source of news and commentary that shines a light through this irrational fog.

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J.C. Bruce

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