Major statewide races tighten up as the countdown to the primary election begins

The deadline to register to vote in the Aug. 18 primary election has ended. Now it is up to the voters to decide what the Nov. ballot will look like.

Jolly and Donalds

By J.C. Bruce

Tropic Press

In less than a month, Florida voters will put the finishing touches on who will be on the midterm election ballots in November.

The August 18 primary will almost certainly be a coronation of David Jolly as the Democratic candidate for governor, and Byron Donalds as the Republican nominee.

And new poll numbers show the race surprisingly close, although much can change between now and the Nov. 3 general election.

According to a University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab survey, Donalds only leads Jolly by five points, 46% to 41%, with the remainder undecided or going to other candidates. Which is interesting considering the lopsided margin by which Republicans lead Democrats in the state.

As you can see from the graphic below, there are fully 1.5 million more Republicans than Democrats. That’s a 58% to 42% advantage among the pool of voters registered to the two major parties.

So, why is the Donalds/Jolly margin so much narrower?

Clearly, it’s the influence of Republican voters crossing over, and voters who have either no party affiliation or who are registered to minor political parties. They are leaning against the Republican candidate.

Donalds’ popularity is largely driven by President Donald Trump’s endorsement, but that is a two-edged sword. Candidates running on Trump’s coattails are also enduring Trump’s plummeting popularity in the polls, where barely 37 percent of voters approve of his performance.

If you’re a Democrat like Jolly, this is a cause for optimism.

Similarly, in the other highest-profile statewide race, polling shows a surprisingly tight contest for the U.S. Senate.

Currently, Florida’s Senate seat up for grabs in November does not have an elected incumbent. Former Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody was appointed to the job by Gov. Ron DeSantis when Marco Rubio resigned to become Secretary of State.

Moody will face either Alex Vindman, the former Army officer and whistleblower who provided evidence for Trump’s first impeachment, or Angie Nixon, a state representative from Jacksonville.

Both Vindman and Nixon are running close to Moody. In possible matchups, Moody leads Nixon by 8 points and Vindman by 10.

That said, support in the polls for either Nixon or Vindman may be somewhat diluted because of their primary election competition. The question is: Will the victorious primary candidate in this tight race be able to rally the support of Democrats who may have voted for his or her opponent?

Seem likely, which also makes it seem plausible that the winner of the Aug. 18 primary may find they are able to close that gap with Moody even more.

This makes the Nixon/Vindman the most interesting statewide primary race to watch next month. Vindman is vastly outraising Nixon in campaign donations, $16.7 million to $625,000.

“These races are notably closer than we’ve seen in recent election cycles, somewhat unsurprising given that the party that controls the presidency usually struggles in midterm elections,” said the poll’s faculty director, Sean Freeder.

“Despite very different ideological approaches, the two Democratic Senate candidates do about as well as one another, suggesting the party’s internal debate over whether to move left or stay centrist may not much affect the behavior of voters, or at least that they aren’t paying attention yet.”

Getting voters’ attention is where that edge in fundraising could play to Vindman’s advantage.

And about that property tax proposal…

The pollsters also asked respondents how they felt about Amendment 3, which will be on the November ballot. This is the proposal by the Legislature to reduce property taxes by increasing homeowners’ homestead exemptions.

It takes 60% of voters to approve it, and at the moment it is favored, according to the poll, by 61%

However, when poll respondents were informed that the measure would result in a budget shortfall of more than $11 billion, support plummeted to 45%.

The Florida Democratic Party has voted to formally oppose Amendment 3.

“We need real affordability relief, but Amendment 3 would hurt our local communities and cut local services while giving huge tax breaks to billionaires and corporations,” said Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried. “This is a scam that would either raise other taxes on working families or rob their communities of essential services like public hospitals, EMTs, fire rescue, disaster preparedness, road maintenance, children’s services, libraries and parks.

Candidate information:

David Jolly

Byron Donalds

Alex Vindman

Angie Nixon

Ashley Moody

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Our democracy as we’ve known it for 250 years is at risk, as you can see from today’s newsletter.

To save it, we will need a groundswell of support from voters in the coming midterm election.

The purpose of this newsletter—and the accompanying Tropic Press website—is to encourage that engagement.

Currently, Tropic Press is reaching more than 700,000 subscribers in Florida and elsewhere, which is great, but there are literally millions of Florida Democrats and independents we are not reaching yet.

You can help spread the word.

Please like this post. Comment if you are so inclined. But, please, also take a moment to share it with people you know.

With mid-term elections on the horizon, the more people we reach, the more effective we can be in helping turn our state and this country around. You can play a vital role in that effort.

Thanks.

J.C. Bruce

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