By Jay Waagmeester
As of 2 p.m. Thursday, 1.33 million voters had returned vote-by-mail ballots or voted early in Florida’s primary elections. Just over 1 million vote-by-mail ballots were yet to be returned.
Among the votes cast, 555,056 were from Democrats and 593,800 from Republicans. About 160,000 ballots cast were by No Party Affiliation voters.
Of the 1 million vote-by-mail ballots outstanding, about 325,000 were for Republicans and 429,000 for Democrats. Another 228,000 belonged to NPA voters.
Republicans enjoy a lead of nearly 1.6 million registered voters. As of Thursday, about 55,000 more Democrats than Republicans had returned ballots by mail. Nearly 100,000 more Republicans have voted early than Democrats.
Early voting ends Saturday, and vote-by-mail ballots must be returned to county election supervisors by 7 p.m. election day Tuesday, Aug. 18 — no matter the postmark. For more information on voting deadlines for the primary and general elections, check out the Phoenix Election 2026 landing page.
Historical
According to the archived 2020 primary vote-by-mail and early voting statistics, 2.9 million ballots were cast early or by mail that year, and 1.9 million mail ballots were not returned.
In 2022, 2.3 million mail ballots were not returned, while 2.36 million ballots were cast early or by mail.
In 2024, there were half as many ballots not returned, 1.02 million, compared to the 2.07 million cast early or by mail.
Outstanding vote-by-mail ballots in large counties | Ballots cast
Broward: 61,416 | 80,192
Collier: 18,464 | 32,227
Duval: 18,400 | 39,844
Hernando: 9,666 | 14,724
Hillsborough: 78,368 | 91,299
Lee: 49,928 | 74,118
Manatee: 21,202 | 28,332
Miami-Dade: 113,505 | 116,851
Orange: 53,277 | 73,984
Pinellas: 114,432 | 83,226
Volusia: 31,541 | 45,764
During a campaign rally Thursday in Wakulla County, gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds asked who there had already voted. Almost everyone raised hands.
Donalds commented on the overall shift in the share of voters who are Republican. He recalled a conversation he had with Florida GOP chair Evan Power in 2024. “I said, Evan, if you don’t get over 1.4 million by the time we hit election day, you’re in trouble.”
“But he accomplished it, and by the time we got to the November elections in 2024, the voter advantage in Florida, Republicans over Democrats, was more than 1.4 million voters. And, since then, he hasn’t stopped; it’s now gone to 1.5 million and counting.”
In 2018, the Florida Democratic Party had about 260,000 more registered voters than the Republican Party.
Jay Waagmeester covers education for the Florida Phoenix. He previously worked for the Iowa Capital Dispatch and the Iowa State Daily. He grew up in Iowa and is a graduate of Iowa State University.
Florida Phoenix is part of States Newsroom, the nation’s largest state-focused nonprofit news organization. This story is republished with their permission. To support Florida Phoenix, click here:
EDITOR’S NOTE:
While, as this article from Florida Phoenix points out, Republicans do outnumber Democrats in Florida—by quite a lot—if you look at the broader picture of Democrats, minor party members, and voters with no party affiliation (NPAs), combined they vastly outnumber the number of Floridians registered to the G.O.P. as you can see in this chart from the Florida Secretary of State’s office:
I would also note that voter registration does not determine election results. Turnout does.
So, while Floridians registered as NPAs, for example, cannot vote in either the Republican or Democratic primary elections, they can vote in November. It’s reasonable to expect that voter turnout among NPAs will be smaller in the primary election next week than in the general election.
Polls indicate a high degree of dissatisfaction with Donald Trump among unaffiliated voters, and it is also reasonable to expect that at least some percentage of Republicans may sit this election out in disgust.
While the raw voter registration numbers may be against those opposed to the fascist impulses of the MAGA movement, there is every reason to believe that the general election in November is a realistic opportunity to change the political complexion of our state.
It will take a lot of work. But it is work worth doing.
Which is why I am so thankful for those of you who are subscribers to this newsletter. Please share this with your friends. It’s vital that we engage every possible voter.
Thank you.
J.C. Bruce
Primary voting is not an indication of General Election voting since Florida has closed primaries. But the local races are important, and those are on the primary ballot.
One of the reasons floriduh had a Democratic numerical lead over repubs was due to the fact that at one time the Democrats were the pro slavery party, floriduh was a confederate and slave state. My father was a Dem and I'm pretty sure if he was still alive he would be a republican. Wealthy repubs from up north have also been a factor in turning the tide. However the Dems did start the effort to wipe out racism and segregation in floriduh. The Dems were also the party that predicted the massive immigration form up North to the beautiful state of Florida, the no state income tax contributed to the trend. The Dems instituted growth management laws to ensure that the quality of Florida's environment was protected. The repubs trashed all those efforts.