By J.C. Bruce
With less than a week until Election Day, the highly regarded Sabato’s Crystal Ball has determined that not only is it highly likely that Democrats will reclaim the majority in the House of Representatives, but the Senate now appears to be in reach.
In the latest release from the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, which publishes the Crystal Ball, their key findings include:
With a week until Election Day, Democrats seem to have a slight advantage in the Senate battle, with Maine and Texas emerging as the likeliest majority-making contests.
In Florida, the Senate race moves from Safe Republican to Likely Republican, meaning the race between incumbent Republican Ashley Moody and Democrat State Rep. Angie Nixon is tighter, although Moody is still favored.
In the Carolinas, former Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC) seems more likely to win his state’s open-seat Senate race, while Sen. Darline Graham (R-SC) is less likely to.
Regarding the hotly contested Florida races for governor and U.S. Senate, the Center for Politics had this to say:
Florida’s Senate race is moving from Safe Republican to Likely Republican. We rate the gubernatorial race as Leans Republican, and polling in the two contests has been similar enough that we thought it made sense to bring their ratings closer together.
Republican Sen. Ashley Moody remains clearly favored, but Democrats have some reason for optimism: Matthew Isbell’s latest early voting analysis shows registered Democrats maintaining a roughly 8-point turnout advantage over registered Republicans, a substantially better position than they held at this point in 2024 (although Republicans, who have a 1.5-million registration advantage over Democrats, finally surpassed them in the overall advance vote Monday).
Democrat Angie Nixon has also been a robust fundraiser, not unlike many other Democratic Senate candidates. We don’t expect the early voting numbers or the fundraising numbers to translate into a Democratic victory, but, together, they reinforce the case for a more competitive rating.
Nixon, a state representative from Jacksonville, has been closing in on Moody over the past few weeks. An earlier University of North Florida poll had her trailing Moody by 10 points. She’s now narrowed that gap to 5 points.
Moody, appointed to the Senate seat by Gov. Ron DeSantis, has been tarred by her involvement in the Hope Florida scandal, and survey respondents have cited that as a reason to vote against her.
Nixon, for her part, has been subjected to relentless Red Scare campaign ads because she has the audacity to endorse some of the positions of Social Democrats (like Bernie Sanders), such as Medicare for All and raising the minimum wage.
While the Crystal Ball still shows the gubernatorial contest leaning Republican, the University of North Florida survey put the Democratic candidate, David Jolly, within two points of the Trump-endorsed Republican, Byron Donalds.
You can read the entire report for yourself, which includes races from other states, by clicking this link:
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