Political Notes: Obama endorses Jolly and Nixon; national governors races shift to Dems; seven races that will decide Senate control

News and commentary from Florida for all Americans as we near the Nov. 3 election

From Cook Political Report

By J.C. Bruce

Tropic Press

Check out the map at the top of this newsletter. See anything unexpected?

It’s all about the color pink, which the prognosticators at Cook Political Report are now using to describe Florida and Texas, states that in previous elections would have been the deepest possible shade of red.

Solid red means the Republican candidate for governor is nearly certain to win (we say “nearly” because, as we know, anything can happen in politics).

When states shift from ruby red to pink—and how appropriate is that in Breast Cancer Awareness Month?—something significant has changed.

Here in Florida, that something is David Jolly, the Democratic nominee, who, according to the University of North Florida's most recent poll, was only two points behind his Trump-endorsed opponent, Byron Donalds, a right-wing congressperson and MAGA darling from ruby-red Naples.

With a 1.5 million-voter registration advantage, Republicans still have the edge over Democrats, oddsmakers say. But there’s more to that story.

Florida has a huge number of voters registered as No Party Affiliation (NPA). The combined total of Democrats and NPAs swamps the Republican numbers, as you can see in this chart from the Secretary of State’s office:

And there are indications that NPAs are leaning more toward Democratic candidates. Whether enough of them will show up and vote that way is, of course, an open question.

There’s also the couch factor (and, no, we’re not talking about J.D. Vance’s odd proclivities).

We’re talking about the enthusiasm gap among Republicans, reflected in Donald Trump’s dismal approval ratings. Will they stay home on the couch? Will enough of them do so to make a difference?

The answers to these questions could turn this map from pink to blue in just a few days.

Other states are already shifting colors, according to Cook, which reports that Democrats could pick up two to four additional governorships. Currently, Republicans outnumber Democrats 26-24.

Seven races that will determine who rules the Senate

Democrats need to pick up four seats to retake the Senate, and the Washington Post has identified seven races that current polling data suggests will decide that. Here’s a chart from the Post that illustrates that:

You will note that Florida is not among the states the Post sees as most likely to flip from red to blue.

Still, as noted above, voter turnout could upset those predictions.

State Rep. Angie Nixon, the Democratic nominee, would become Florida's first Black senator if she pulls off an upset over the incumbent, Ashley Moody.

As we’ve discussed in previous newsletters, Moody is a placeholder, put in the job by Gov. Ron DeSantis when Marco Rubio quit the Senate to become U.S. Secretary of State. This happened shortly after she turned a blind eye to what has become known as the Hope Florida scandal.

In the most recent University of North Florida polling, Nixon trails Moody by 5 points. Can her appeals to younger voters close that gap? Will they get off the couch? We’ll see.

Obama endorses Jolly and Nixon

“Real change starts when regular folks stand up for what’s right, and Angie has spent her career standing up for you,” former President Barack Obama, who won Florida in both his presidential campaigns, said in a video Nixon shared.

Obama said Nixon has consistently fought for policies that help people, including a $15 minimum wage and opposing Gov. Ron DeSantis’ congressional redistricting. “One leader willing to stand up again and again for what’s right,” he said. “That’s why I believe Angie will be an outstanding U.S. Senator.”

As for Jolly, Obama said he is “focused on lowering the cost of housing and healthcare and making sure every child gets a great education. Elections are about who will fight for you, and in this election, it’s David Jolly. So, let’s do this, Florida. Vote for the change you deserve.”

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