Season's first hurricane?

It's too early to know, but this will bear watching over the next week as it makes its way across the Atlantic

It makes a pretty picture, doesn’t it? All those colorful bubbles, like strings of pearls decorating the Atlantic Ocean.

Well, it might not be so pleasing if the worst-case forecast comes true. This is an early look at what could possibly become the storm track of the season’s first hurricane. Her name would be Erin.

It should be noted that it’s still early days as you can see from the above map. The disturbance is still close to the coast of Africa. Forecasters say it likely will be well into next week before we have a better sense of where this system will travel and how intense it will become.

Meteorologist Bryan Norcross, who specializes in hurricanes, notes on his Hurricane Intel blog that weather patterns favor the storm’s development, but a lot can happen over the next several days, not least of which is that the earlier this disturbance strengthens the more likely it is to curl north and away from us.

Fingers crossed.

Says Norcross:

The consensus of the various long-range computer forecast models is that the weather pattern over Florida, the Gulf, and the Southeast will be generally supportive of the system developing into a hurricane. That only applies, of course, if it doesn't arc to the north early, which is not out of the question.

He also cautions us to keep our powder dry until more data is in:

Despite what you might see posted on social media, there is nothing more to know. All long-range forecasts for a system that has not even begun to develop are subject to large errors and are likely to change many times. Posts showing landfall in the United States are not worth your attention and are only there to cause angst.

But it bears watching.

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Parting Shot

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J.C. Bruce is the editor of Tropic Press, an award winning journalist and columnist, and author. He holds dual citizenship in the United States of America and his native Florida.

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