This year's midterms may lean Democrats' way despite all the Republican gerrymandering

News and commentary from Florida for all Americans

Larry Sabato of the Center for Politics

By J.C. Bruce

Tropic Press

The political prognosticators at Sabato’s Crystal Ball just dropped a refreshing bit of news for everyone interested in regime change.

According to the think tank’s analysis of gerrymandered congressional districts across America, this year’s midterm election may actually favor Republicans slightly less than the last time there was a midterm election with Donald Trump at the helm.

That was in 2018 when Democrats gained 41 seats in the House of Representatives, reaching a 235-seat majority and ending eight straight years of Republican control of the chamber.

This is particularly fascinating in light of Trump having ordered red states to redraw their congressional districts to disfavor Democrats, a ploy to retain G.O.P. control in the House to fend off his possible impeachment.

Florida, of course, was at the epicenter of these gerrymandering efforts. Obeying their Lord and Master, the Republican supermajority in the state House and Senate delivered what Gov. Ron DeSantis insisted upon: a redrawn congressional map that—theoretically, at least—reduced the number of so-called “safe” Democratic seats from eight to four.

You have to look microscopically close at the new map to see any blue at all:

That same story played out in other states, too, most notably Texas, but then Democratic-controlled states such as California sprang back with their own gerrymander counterpoints. There were lawsuits, countersuits, and confusion.

One of the big questions has been: Where has all this shifting around left us?

Now comes The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, where Larry Sabato’s “Crystal Ball” forecasts winners and losers in congressional, presidential and gubernatorial races nationwide.

Their latest offering:

— Republicans made the House map better for themselves compared to the 2024 map by winning this cycle’s expansive redistricting fight.

— However, comparing this year’s map to the district lines in place in 2018—the last midterm held under President Trump—puts the 2026 House map in a different light.

— By a number of of metrics, the 2026 House map is no more favorable to Republicans than the 2018 map, and it may actually be a little less favorable.

— The median House district by presidential performance is less Republican, the number of districts that voted to the right of the nation for president is smaller, and the number of plausible Democratic House targets based on history is comparable.

Said another way, despite taking their Sharpies to all these congressional maps, Republicans may have, inadvertently, diluted their strength in some of their formerly safe strongholds, a real FAFO moment.

And if this year’s results, in fact, mirror 2018’s, it could be a very good year, indeed, for Democrats running for Congress. That is assuming the Supreme Court ignores Trump’s appeal to curb mail-in voting, as reported yesterday. We will need to watch that very closely.

You can read the full (and very wonky) Center for Politics report here:

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Are Democrats stealing ‘America First’?

Axios points out that Democrats are increasingly using the “America First” slogan for their own campaigns. With Trump breaking faith with the G.O.P. over his illegal war of choice in Iran, Dems are seizing the opportunity to turn that back on Republicans.

California Rep. Ro Khanna, weighing a possible presidential campaign, said that it was time to “put America first” when he reintroduced a bill to ban gas exports during periods of high gas prices.

Abdul El-Sayed, a Senate candidate in Michigan, told Axios: “I’m the most America First candidate in the country, proudly. When you keep our money here rather than sending it to some other country’s war machine, that’s America First.”

Dan Osborn, running for Senate in Nebraska as an independent against the Republican incumbent, wrote: "We need to be putting America first, not Israel first."

My opinion: This is smart. Democrats have for too long allowed Republicans to get away with wrapping themselves in the flag, calling their supporters “patriots” as if that makes them different from other Americans. Time to take back the flag and use it.

James Fishback stays on ballot

A judge has rejected a lawsuit seeking to remove Republican gubernatorial candidate James Fishback from the August ballot over residency requirements.

It was filed by Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, who is also running in the primary. Both men significantly trail frontrunner U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds of Naples.

A candidate must have lived in the state for seven consecutive years to run for governor, and records show that within the past few years, Fishback bought a home and lived in Washington, D.C.

But despite making that his “primary home,” he never abandoned his Florida residency, Fishback claimed, and Circuit Judge David Frank of Tallahassee bought his argument.

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Please share this post

Our democracy as we’ve known it for 250 years is at risk. To save it, we will need a groundswell of support from voters in the coming midterm election.

The purpose of this newsletter—and the accompanying Tropic Press website—is to encourage that engagement.

Currently, Tropic Press is reaching more than 700,000 subscribers in Florida and elsewhere, which is great, but there are literally millions of Florida Democrats and independents we are not reaching yet.

You can help spread the word.

Please like this post. Comment if you are so inclined. But, please, also take a moment to share it with people you know.

With mid-term elections on the horizon, the more people we reach, the more effective we can be in helping turn our state and this country around. You can play a vital role in that effort.

Thanks.

J.C. Bruce

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