By J.C. Bruce
Labor Day traditionally marks the start of the fall election season, and despite Donald Trump’s efforts at voter suppression, Democrats continue to be favored to regain control of at least the House of Representatives and maybe even the Senate.
According to political scientists at Cornell University who have correctly predicted the outcomes of the past 14 congressional elections, Democrats have an 8 in 10 chance of regaining control of the House by winning 226 seats versus Republicans’ 209.
Should that play out, that would give Democrats greater control than Republicans now command with their narrow 218-214 majority.
Read: Midterm forecast strongly favors Democrats to win House majority
The Senate outlook is cloudier. The Cook Political Report notes that of the 35 Senate seats up for grabs, 13 are either solid, likely or lean Democratic. Add those to the 34 Democratic incumbents and it adds up to 47 Senate seats for the Democrats.
Republicans have 16 seats likely going their way, and added to their current 31 seats that also totals 47.
In the middle are six toss-up races that will determine control of the upper chamber of Congress.
Democrats need to win at least four of those seats to claim the majority. All but one of those toss-up races either have Republican incumbents or have gone Republican in previous elections. So, it will be an uphill fight, but within reach.
As for the Labor Day weekend itself, most of us will be enjoying an extra day off tomorrow. Not so for our fellow Americans laboring in the retail industry, where the holiday that was created to honor workers has morphed into one of the busiest shopping days of the year.
But even if retail employees will be busy selling mattresses and appliances or whatnot, they’ll at least get holiday pay, right?
Not necessarily.
Under the federal Fair Labor Standards Act, holidays are just like any other workday.
Democrats are trying to change that, and have introduced legislation that would require employers to pay time-and-a-half for holiday work. Another reason to root for change in Congress.
Also, this week marks a somber commemoration: It has been 25 years since hijackers carried out a series of suicide attacks, striking the Twin Towers in New York City and the Pentagon. A fourth jetliner crashed in Shanksville, Pa., when passengers overpowered the terrorists. In all, 2,977 people perished on Sept. 11, 2001.
On the bright side, the NFL kicks off its regular season Wednesday when the New England Patriots take on the Seattle Seahawks for a nationally televised game. All three Florida NFL teams play the following Sunday.
More items for this week’s calendar in the Onward Thru the Fog section below.
That Was The Week That Was
What’s the future of mail-in voting?
A Boston federal judge on Friday blocked President Donald Trump’s scheme to impose federal rules on mail-in ballots, but Justice Department lawyers say they may appeal that decision all the way to the Supreme Court if necessary.
If so, that should play out in the coming week. I had full details on this legal wrangling in Saturday’s newsletter, but in case you missed it, here’s the link:
Federal judge--one more time--blocks Trump mail-in ballot scheme
Jolly closes in on Donalds
We’re eight weeks away from the midterm election, and it appears Democrat David Jolly may be gaining on his gubernatorial race opponent, Republican Byron Donalds.
The Cook Political Report last week moved its prediction for the race from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican.”
“While Jolly trails Trump-backed Rep. Byron Donalds by more than a 10-1 margin in fundraising, his ability to potentially reach out to independents and disaffected Republicans makes this a unique contest that could possibly become competitive,” the report said.
“Jolly would still need a significant financial boost to mount a statewide television campaign and have a real shot.”
To which Jolly replied:
“But this is a cycle where you can get outspent 10-1 and still win. Now, I will tell you I think that you’re going to see money come in.”
Alligator Alcatraz is the gift that keeps on giving.
Even though Gov. Ron DeSantis’ boondoggle concentration camp in the Everglades has been shut down, bills are still coming in.
The Florida Division of Emergency Management is asking for $250 million at an upcoming Joint Legislative Budget Commission meeting. It turns out that vendors working with Alligator Alcatraz and another North Florida facility have been promised roughly $1.4 billion.
While DeSantis assumed the federal government would cover the costs—and received a partial FEMA payment of $58 million—much of the promised $608 million in federal reimbursements remains in limbo.
Where would the $250 million come from? Florida’s Emergency Preparedness and Response Fund, originally set up for natural disasters like pandemics and hurricanes.
But there’s no emergency like unpaid bills. Thanks, DeSantis.
Why is space a vacuum?
Because Google Maps and Apple Maps suck.
They immediately caved in to Trump’s executive order to rename Lake Ontario as Lake America, and millions of users erupted in protest over their cowardice.
The beneficiary: MapQuest, which has seen millions of downloads as consumers abandon both Google Maps and Apple Maps.
Read: MapQuest doesn’t take a knee to Trump
Meme of the Week
They said it
"We have a gulf, and we have a lake, now all we need is an ocean."
—Donald Trump after signing an executive order renaming Lake Ontario
“President Trump can call it whatever he wants, but I can tell you the rest of the world will always call it Lake Ontario. We’re resilient and we’re strong Canadians who are always going to protect our sovereignty, always, and we’ll never ever back down from a bully, ever.”
—Ontario Premier Doug Ford
Letter of the Week
A narcissistic megalomaniac liar with power is not the problem. He can be removed any time. Morons who blindly follow him, either for personal gain or plain irreparable ignorance, are the real dangerous problem.
—Victor M. Santana
Onward
When I’m not writing this newsletter, I also scribble a current events column for Florida Weekly. You should check it out. Here are some snippets, from there and elsewhere, to help guide your week ahead. (Paid subscribers to this newsletter have full access to the complete Onward Thru the Fog archive.)
September 6 is Fight Procrastination Day. I’ve been planning to do this, but keep putting it off.
September 7, as noted earlier, is Labor Day. The holiday originated in the late 19th century when labor union leaders and activists pushed for the creation of the holiday to recognize American workers. There was a parade in New York in 1882 to kick it off, and it became a legal holiday in 1894.
September 8. International Literacy Day. The best way to celebrate this important holiday is to buy a book. You can find a few suggestions here:
September 9. It’s National Teddy Bear Day. It commemorates President Teddy Roosevelt’s decision, while on a hunting trip in 1902, not to shoot a bear cub that had been captured.
September 10 is TV Dinner Day, marking the anniversary in 1953 of the first frozen mass-marketed turkey dinner. The original Swanson meal featured, in addition to turkey, cornbread dressing, peas and sweet potatoes on an aluminum tray.
September 11. Today at the National September 11 Memorial & Museum in New York City, the anniversary of the dreadful terrorist attacks of 2001 will be remembered.
September 12 is National Chocolate Milkshake Day. According to unnamed sources to whom I have promised anonymity, the best shake in America is made at Shake Shack, followed closely by Culver’s.
Last Week’s Tropic Press headlines
In case you missed it, here are some of the stories that headlined Tropic Press this past week. Click on the headlines to read the stories.
Curses! Foiled again! Federal judge--one more time--blocks Trump mail-in ballot scheme
Meet the candidates whose fingerprints are all over the Hope Florida scandal
Florida government wants to fool kids about climate change--hopefully it won’t work
MapQuest, unlike some others, doesn’t bow to Trump. You don’t have to, either
This is the clown fiesta you get when the Senate fails to do its job--thanks, Scott and Moody
How badly do we want to change the Supreme Court? Congress may weigh in today. What do you think?
Mail-in ballots in Florida are safe--ignore the White House; ask the supervisors of elections
Miss Mingo column wins Florida SPJ Best Blog Award
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Thanks.
J.C. Bruce
I actually love Mapquest. Thank you Apple and Google for pushing me to try it!
I'm still worried about the mail-in voting. I'm worried if people will get their ballots and if they mail them, they will make it to their Supervisor of Elections office. DeSantis is still trying to curry favor with Trump, so he was probably the first Republican governor to send in the list. I don't have answers, but everyone should be able to vote if they have registered to vote in Florida, regardless of whether they requested a mail-in ballot or not. If it's good enough for Trump, it should be good enough for the rest of us Floridians.