Looking ahead to the next Congress: Toss-up races and voter turnout will be key

News and commentary for Floridians and all Americans concerned about the future of our country

By J.C. Bruce

Tropic Press

The most pressing political question of the moment—and likely until November—is this:

Can Democrats capture control of the House?

Earlier, the respected Center for Politics at the University of Virginia noted that even after all the Republican gains in gerrymandering congressional districts, Democrats still have an edge.

The center’s Crystal Ball report just came out, and they are now hedging a bit. It really is worth reading their full report here, but I will summarize:

The situation is dynamic, as you would expect, and between now and Election Day we should expect to see changes, but as of this moment, the prognosticators at the Center for Politics have increased the number of congressional races nationwide that they view as toss-ups, from their previous 15 to 20.

According to their analysis, these races will be key in determining whether Republicans keep control of Congress, or if Democrats take over.

“Our overall topline assessment is basically unchanged, though: Democrats remain favored to flip the House majority in November, but Republicans have a path, too,” the center reports.

Here’s a graphic showing the most recent changes in how congressional districts are leaning. Note that U.S. Rep. Kathy Castor of Florida has seen her district morph from leaning toward Republicans to a toss-up.

As you can see, the movement in their assessments swings toward Democrats. That said:

Democrats seem to be having some trouble converting some Trump disapprovers into Democratic voters, particularly those who just somewhat disapprove of Trump as opposed to strongly disapprove.

For instance, the Pew Research Center recently found Democrats ahead on the generic ballot 43%-37% among registered voters, even as the 12% of voters who just “somewhat” disapproved of Trump were tied at 31% in their generic congressional choice (with nearly 2 in 5 undecided, some of whom will just decide not to vote).

Respondents in the other three approval categories were much more one-sided, with very few strong disapprovers saying they would vote Republican and hardly any strong or somewhat approvers saying they would vote Democratic.

Democrats may benefit from a change to likely voter models in polls; for instance, even in the (most recent) Ipsos poll of registered voters, the Democratic lead was a more robust 8 points among those who described themselves as “absolutely certain” to vote. This enthusiasm problem for Republicans extends even to otherwise reliably GOP voters, according to a report over the weekend from the Washington Post.

That sounds good, except that Republicans could still turn this around if some Democratic candidates perform poorly on the campaign trail, and if Democrats get outspent in campaign advertising thanks to the most recent Supreme Court ruling that allows greater coordination between political action committees and candidates.

Of course, all bets are off if the Supreme Court agrees to allow Trump to take steps to curb mail-in voting.

Absent some curveball like that, the biggest variable will be the state of the economy leading up to Election Day. It consistently ranks as the top voter concern.

And that can affect whether Republicans, disenchanted with Trump, stay home or switch, and whether Democrats muster the enthusiasm they need to generate a groundswell of voters.

Additional Reading:

Thirteen House Rating Changes Toward Democrats as Seat-by-Seat Assessment Better Aligns with Our November Expectations

This year’s midterms may lean Democrats’ way despite all the Republican gerrymandering

---

Please share this post — we need to encourage voter turnout

Our democracy as we’ve known it for 250 years is at risk. To save it, we will need, as I mentioned in my article, a groundswell of support from voters in the coming midterm election.

The purpose of this newsletter—and the accompanying Tropic Press website—is to encourage that engagement.

Currently, Tropic Press is reaching more than 700,000 subscribers in Florida and elsewhere, which is great, but there are literally millions of Florida Democrats and independents we are not reaching yet.

You can help spread the word.

Please like this post. Comment if you are so inclined. But, please, also take a moment to share it with people you know.

With mid-term elections on the horizon, the more people we reach, the more effective we can be in helping turn our state and this country around. You can play a vital role in that effort.

Thanks.

J.C. Bruce

---