Primary turnout was abysmal, which may have helped Nixon but could hurt Dems in November

Florida downgraded as less likely to turn over Senate seat, but this isn’t over yet

By J.C. Bruce

Tropic Press

Only about one in four registered voters turned out for this week’s primary election in Florida, which wasn’t a surprise, but may have heavily influenced the results in at least one critical race.

Low voter turnout is common in primaries and tends to give an advantage to candidates appealing to more passionate political leanings.

Said another way, voters in the middle of the political spectrum, moderates of both major parties, tend to be underrepresented in primary elections compared to the general elections in November.

This is especially so in so-called “closed primary” states like Florida, which by law requires that voters belong to either the Democratic or Republican parties to vote in those primary elections. This despite the fact that all taxpayers foot the bill.

Even conservative-leaning states such as Texas are more progressive in this regard, allowing all registered voters to participate.

So, there was diminished incentive for Florida's more than 3 million voters unaffiliated with either major party to vote this week, but it is reasonable to expect that come November they’ll show up for key gubernatorial, U.S. Senate and congressional races.

But their moderating influence wasn’t felt in this primary, which may have been an assist to State Rep. Angie Nixon, the Democratic Socialist firebrand from Jacksonville who staged an upset win—by a wide margin—over her more well-funded opponent, former army officer and Trump whistleblower Alex Vindman.

Vindman had outraised Nixon by a wide margin, but, shockingly, left millions unspent by election day, forgoing an opportunity to make his case to voters in a race where both candidates were not particularly well known.

Vindman spent much of his campaign focusing on what he assumed would be his eventual November rival, incumbent U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody, instead of Nixon.

Moody will be on the ballot this fall, but Vindman will not. He would have been better advised to understand that Nixon’s anti-establishment message would resonate, and that he needed to take her candidacy more seriously.

Not the first time hubris has doomed a campaign.

But while the highly personable Nixon scored a big primary win, political prognosticators question whether she will be able to prevail against Moody, who was appointed to the Senate by Gov. Ron DeSantis when Marco Rubio vacated the job to become Secretary of State.

The Center for Politics in Virginia, which publishes Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, immediately changed its outlook for the Florida senatorial race from “likely Republican” to “safely Republican.”

Here’s what the prognosticators had to say about Nixon’s victory and the possible consequences for down-ballot candidates in Florida come November:

Florida’s Democratic primary for Senate produced a significant surprise. State Rep. Angie Nixon (D), a legislator from the Jacksonville area and Democratic Socialist, defeated former National Security Council member Alex Vindman by a 56%-44% margin.

In January, we moved our overall rating for the Senate race from Safe Republican to Likely Republican. That change was predicated, to a large extent, on the fact that Vindman seemed to be in the driver’s seat of his primary. And if he proved anything like his twin brother, Rep. Eugene Vindman (D, VA-7), on the fundraising front, he would have no problem raising enough money to at least keep what has otherwise become a daunting state on the board. Indeed, ahead of this week’s primary, Vindman had raised about $16 million, while Nixon had raised less than $1 million. In a big state like Florida, Vindman could at least have run a statewide campaign.

If the current political mood was similar to what Trump’s first midterm saw, Vindman probably would have been better positioned. His endorsements from figures like Rep. Jamie Raskin (D, MD-8) and author Mary Trump suggested that he was a good fit for older, high-information “#resistance” voters. In fact, according to Redistricter, residents older than 65 collectively accounted for nearly 30% of the population of the 15 counties that Vindman carried; senior citizens made up just 18% of the population of the counties Nixon won.

Nixon, who ran as a more strident progressive, seemed to have more credibility with grassroots Democrats. She also received some prominent outside endorsements, including from members of the progressive “Squad” and, notably, YouTuber Ms. Rachel. Orlando-area Rep. Maxwell Frost (D, FL-10) was one of her more visible backers; outside of her home county, Jacksonville’s Duval, she carried the core Orlando metro counties by better than 2-to-1. One thing that may have hurt Vindman, even in a state where many residents were not born there themselves, is that he really did not have much connection to Florida before deciding to run there. In another Florida primary … the GOP race for the open, dark red FL-19 got national attention for attracting a litany of candidates from out of state, but the candidate who won the nomination, media company owner Jim Schwartzel, is actually from the area.

But Democrats now enter the general election with a more progressive and lesser-funded nominee against appointed Sen. Ashley Moody (R). Moody is running to serve out the final two years of the term that now-Secretary of State Marco Rubio (R) won in 2022. She has been criticized by some for running a low-key campaign, but she lacks any obvious baggage and is essentially a generic Republican in a bright red state.

This was always going to be a heavy lift for Democrats, but following the primary, we are moving Florida’s Senate race back to Safe Republican from Likely Republican.

For Senate Democrats, the silver lining of this change might be that Florida now looks less attractive to donors. While it is impossible to precisely dictate where donors send money, those contributions would presumably be more likely to end up in more competitive states.

However, having to run with a weaker Senate nominee may make life a little harder for some down-ballot Democrats in Florida’s more marginal districts. That said, a much different kind of candidate, party-switching former Republican Rep. David Jolly, is the Democratic nominee in the state’s other top statewide race (the state’s gubernatorial race remains rated Likely Republican in our ratings).

It bears noting, of course, that the reason the Crystal Ball forecasters had to change their Florida outlook is that they got it wrong in the first place. They, like Vindman, underestimated Nixon’s appeal.

Voter registration odds are, of course, against any Democrat running statewide in Florida, with Republicans outnumbering Democrats 5.6 million to 4 million.

That said, there are several factors to consider that mitigate against this election being a foregone conclusion, in my opinion:

• There are 3.3 million voters registered as No Party Affiliation who will enter the voting pool come November. How they will lean is yet to be determined.

• Ashley Moody is relying on her loyalty to Trump. But Trump’s popularity has been sinking. Said another way, she may have tied her political future to a sinking ship even in heavily Republican Florida.

• Voter turnout will be a huge factor in November as it is in every election. Will Trump in the dumps dampen Republican voter turnout?

• Finally, as we saw this week, it is a mistake to underestimate Angie Nixon.

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J.C. Bruce