By J.C. Bruce
Republican candidates facing strong headwinds in the upcoming midterms have been urged by their party’s leader—Donald Trump—to make the election all about him.
“I’m not on the ballot, but in a certain way I’m on the ballot, so please go out and vote,” Trump exhorted MAGA faithful at a recent rally.
He’s trying to resurrect his election victory in 2024, but that only works if he’s able to draw to the polls the marginal—often under-informed and infrequent — voters who supplied that margin of victory.
It’s not a great strategy.
Imagine you are a Republican candidate for Congress or a statewide office. Why would you want to link your candidacy to Trump when his ratings in the polls are so far underwater you’d need a submarine to find them?
It would be like tying your political dinghy to Trump’s Titanic and praying for no icebergs.
Which is why many GOP candidates have been revising their websites to minimize Trump, and why at this week’s "Trump-a-Palooza" midterm pep rally in Dallas, many Republicans realized they'd better stay home and campaign instead.
The price tag is more than a little daunting, too. It’s $25,000 a head for congressional candidates. Then there are add-ons:
Roundtable with Donald Trump: Priced at $250,000.
Photograph with Donald Trump: Priced at $88,600.
Meeting with JD Vance: Priced at $75,000.
Photograph with JD Vance: Priced at $35,000
And where will all that cash go? Ummm. Trump’s not saying.
So, what are the odds Trump’s self-centered strategy will work?
Don’t bet on it.
As political prognosticator Charlie Cook put it:
“…Republicans should brace themselves: The three most plausible outcomes are that it will be bad, really bad, or truly horrible. Conversely, a Democrat should at least briefly consider that the good fortune they may have in November will come compliments of the president, not as a result of much that they have done.”
And as Florida pollster Mark Schulman notes:
Trump is also battling midterm history. Even overlooking Trump’s mistaken strategy of making the midterms orbit around him, only three presidents since World War II have seen their party gain House seats in a midterm. Very few have maintained full control of Congress. The historical pattern is overwhelmingly one of losses, not retention.
According to Gallup, incumbent presidential parties lose an average of 26 House seats post-WWII. That figure increases to an average loss of 35–37 House seats when the president’s job approval rating remains under 50%.
You can read Schulman’s full report on his Substack site. It is entitled: Trump’s Misguided Midterm Strategy: Total Control. I’ve also republished it on the Tropic Press website. It’s data-rich and filled with smart analysis.
As Schulman also notes, independent voters will play a huge role in this year’s elections, and that’s especially important in Florida. While Republicans have a commanding 1.5 million more registered voters than Democrats, there are a whopping 3.3 million voters registered as No Party Affiliation. How they turn out and vote will be crucial.
Here are the numbers:
National polling shows independents are leaning Democratic. This is from Schulman’s post:
As you can see, these independents favor Democrats 2-1. Couple that with what could be a lower-than-usual Republican turnout, and unexpected things could happen on Nov. 3.
Maybe making it all about Trump will help.
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Thanks.
J.C. Bruce
Reading Tropic Press first thing this morning has certainly cheered me up. It is all about Trump!