Volunteer efforts are closing the gap to ensure Democrats are on the Legislature ballot

News and commentary for Floridians concerned about the future of our democracy

By J.C. Bruce

Tropic Press

Two months ago, when I first started writing about the disappointing dearth of Democratic candidates filing for state legislative offices, there were 58 Senate and House seats in which Republicans would be a shoo-in because they were unopposed.

I’m pleased to report that since then, thanks to the ongoing efforts of volunteer recruiters, that gap is closing.

As of today, there are now only 17 seats left to be filled, according to Project 140, the statewide Democratic-candidate recruiting initiative.

There are four weeks left before candidates must begin filing their paperwork to qualify to be on the midterm election ballot (or the August primary ballot if they have intraparty competition).

At the rate candidates are being recruited, organizers have a decent shot at ensuring every Republican running for the Florida Legislature will have to earn their seat by facing off against a Democratic opponent.

But the homestretch is always the hardest part of the race, so organizers aren’t taking their foot off the gas.

“We’ve got a bunch more folks to find before the end of May,” says Margie Stein, the Naples volunteer who is heading up the Project 140 initiative.

Of interest, Stein also reports that among the 41 Democratic candidates rounded up over the past couple of months, “we have recruited about 10 folks who are under 30 years old.”

By the numbers

Project 140 derives its name from the number of seats up for grabs during any Florida legislative election. While there are a total of 160 House and Senate seats in the Legislature, only 20 of the 40 senators must run in any given election. (Senators serve four-year terms; House members, two-year terms.)

When the project launched, there were 47 State House seats and 11 State Senate seats with no Democrats running.

Today, Stein reports there are only 12 State House seats and 5 State Senate seats left to find Democrats who are willing to throw their hats into the ring.

This is about more than the Legislature

One of the arguments for ensuring Democrats are on the ballot is the carry-over impact on the rest of the statewide races.

Local Democratic candidates and their supporters help register voters, knock on doors, and generally stimulate voter turnout.

So, while it is certain that some of these candidates in ruby red districts may not succeed, you have to define what winning looks like. If they bring out more Democratic or like-minded independent voters, those votes can roll up into races for Governor and U.S. Senator and make the difference between winning or losing in a tight race.

The lesson of history…

As I have previously reported:

Consider the year 2000, when Florida was the epicenter of national controversy. The election between Vice President Al Gore and Gov. George W. Bush of Texas was so close that it ended up in the Supreme Court. By the time the court stopped the recount of ballots and Al Gore conceded the election, Bush was ahead by only 537 votes.

While this razor-thin presidential election was taking place, Florida, at that time, had 23 congressional districts. In seven of them, though, Republicans ran unopposed.

And in eight out of the 20 state Senate districts, no Democrats were running either, and in 30 of the 120 state House districts, Republicans were also unopposed.

“If you look at any of the data about what happens when you have candidates running, knocking on doors, inspiring voters to turn out … you know that turnout goes up,” said David Pepper, former chairman of the Ohio Democratic Party, often quoted by Project 140 organizers.

Theoretically, Gore might have won in 2000 if Democrats had simply fielded candidates in those unopposed races. It would have been enough even if the difference was only one additional vote for every 10 precincts in the state (there are about 5,600 precincts statewide).

There’s no way to actually prove that, of course. Every election is different. Republicans facing opposing candidates also would have been motivated to work harder to turn out more voters, so it’s impossible to know.

But the argument is this:

“In this year of years, it is all the more important that we get everybody out to vote because we have the possibility to elect a Democratic senator and a Democratic governor,” Stein says. “Whether a local statehouse seat wins or loses is not the point. If we pick up margins, those votes—even if we lose (locally)—they will help the candidates at the top of the ticket.”

With so many Republicans riding President Donald Trump’s coattails, and with Trump’s popularity underwater in public opinion polls, some offices now with Republican incumbents might be up for grabs—both in the state Legislature and Congress. That’s the theory, anyway.

“Anything within 10 points is winnable,” Stein says. “Some people say it’s 14 points, so I’ll take 10.”

You can help

There is still time to consider tossing your own hat into the ring. How do you go about doing that? Here’s where you can get some more information:

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Thanks, Trump

As reported earlier this week, Spirit Airlines, based in South Florida, has ceased operations after failing to secure a government bailout from the Trump administration.

The airline was already in financial trouble, but the skyrocketing cost of jet fuel—a problem created wholly by Donald Trump and his indefensible war against Iran—was the straw that broke Spirit’s back.

Now, the airline is sharing the number of lost jobs, and they are in the thousands.

As reported by the South Florida Sun Sentinel:

In a filing with the State of Florida, Spirit said it eliminated more than 4,000 jobs in South and Central Florida, with the job losses concentrated at Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport, the company’s headquarters in Dania Beach, Miami International Airport, and two sites at Orlando International Airport.

The locations and eliminations reported by the company to Florida Commerce:

• Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International: 2,529

• Spirit Support Center, Dania Beach: 551

• Miami International: 151

• Orlando International: 796.

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Thanks for your support

It’s easy to feel overwhelmed if you are a rational person living in the Free State of Florida, but there are plenty of smart, reasonable people just like you here. The purpose of this newsletter and the Tropic Press website is to provide a source of news and commentary that shines a light through this irrational fog.

Thank you for your support as a subscriber. It is invaluable. This is especially so for those of you who have chosen to upgrade to paid subscriptions. Your contributions are making this possible.

J.C. Bruce

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