By J.C. Bruce
The marquee races in Florida’s midterm election have narrowed dramatically in the last few weeks, so much so that the possibility of Democratic upsets in both the gubernatorial and U.S. Senate contests now seem possible.
In a poll of 1,471 likely voters, Republican gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds leads his Democratic opponent, David Jolly, by just 2 points, 49% to 47%, with 4% undecided. In July, a similar survey showed Donalds up by 5 points, so the gap between the two candidates has narrowed significantly.
Also of note: included in these results from the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab are “leaners” — voters who may switch parties in the election. Of those, 11% of Republicans surveyed said they plan to vote for Jolly, while only 5% of Democrats intend to cast their ballots for Donalds.
In another twist, 30% of respondents said they were less likely to vote for Sen. Ashley Moody because of her connection to the Hope Florida scandal, which helps explain the narrowing U.S. Senate race. A few months ago, Moody led her Democratic opponent, State Rep. Angie Nixon, by 10 points. That lead has now shrunk to 5 points with just over a week left before Election Day—49% to 45%.
While the fallout from the Hope Florida scandal has damaged Moody, Republicans have been attacking Nixon for her support of a higher minimum wage, Medicare for all, and other social justice issues she is championing as someone with ties to the Democratic Socialists of America. Some 25 percent of respondents said they are less likely to vote for her because of that.
Other takeaways:
“Though Donalds enjoys a slight advantage, these numbers suggest a competitive gubernatorial race, similar to the race between Andrew Gillum and Ron DeSantis in 2018, which was won by less than a percentage point. Given the margin of error, a win by either candidate would be unsurprising,” said Dr. Sean Freeder, the Public Opinion Research Lab faculty director. “This increased competitiveness can primarily be attributed to national-level effects – midterm elections are generally difficult for the party of the president, especially given Trump’s near-historic low approval ratings. Furthermore, Donalds’ attempt to win over Black voters does not appear to be working, as Donalds receives just 10% of their support, only slightly more than Senator Moody’s 9%, despite not engaging in nearly as much effort.”
“Like Donalds, Moody appears to be in a competitive race, though one that leans more decisively in her favor. Independents favor Nixon by 15 points, and also appear to be more concerned about Moody’s ties to Hope Florida than Nixon’s ties to socialism,” Feeder said. “Given the anti-incumbent mood of swing voters, both Donalds and Moody’s success depends upon Republicans not falling too far behind Democrats in terms of turnout and enthusiasm.”
“Both Donalds and Moody enjoy a small but real enthusiasm gap among their voters,” said Feeder. “This is perhaps understandable given that former Republican Jolly may be less appealing to Democratic voters further to the left, and leftist Nixon may alienate moderate Democrats with her positions on the economy and Israel. It’s possible one candidate may be helping the other by giving each wing of the party at least one major candidate to feel enthusiastic about, therefore driving up Democratic turnout.”
Overall, the poll's findings suggest close races for governor and Senate, where turnout will play a key role. “Polling ultimately can’t tell us with certainty what turnout will end up looking like,” Freeder cautioned. “Particularly strong turnout by Democrats would make Jolly slightly favored, and Nixon more competitive; on the other hand, if Republicans are more enthusiastic than expected, Moody and Donalds could have more comfortable victories.”
That Was the Week That Was
Trump is already interfering with the election
The Trump administration sued Alaska to block certification of its U.S. Senate election results if Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan loses to Democrat Mary Peltola. The lawsuit argues that a second candidate, Daniel J. Sullivan, could confuse voters and divert votes from the incumbent, even though state courts rejected efforts to remove him from the ballot. Trump confirmed he personally ordered the lawsuit, saying: “I’m the one that said ‘do it.’”
Trump is ordered by Miami judge to sit for deposition
Miami federal Magistrate Judge Enjoliqué Lett ordered Donald Trump to sit for a deposition by December 11 in his $10 billion defamation lawsuit against the BBC. Trump had canceled a previously scheduled session, citing matters of national importance. The judge warned that failure to cooperate could result in sanctions, including dismissal of his lawsuit. The case concerns a BBC documentary that edited excerpts of Trump’s January 6, 2021, speech. The BBC apologized for the editing but denies defamation.
Hope Florida scandal won’t go away quietly
The Florida Center for Government Accountability (FLCGA) — the publisher of the independent news organization Florida Trident — has asked Florida’s First District Court of Appeal to reconsider its October 7, 2026, ruling that expunged the Hope Florida grand jury presentment. FLCGA argues the decision wrongly silences grand juries that criticize officials without indicting them. It also says the court improperly excluded FLCGA from the appeal without notice and challenges the finding that the $10 million involved was never public money.
New skin cancer vaccine may be on the horizon
Two drug manufacturers have announced the results of a closely watched trial of an experimental vaccine given to patients with melanoma. The study found that the patients who received the vaccine after surgery to remove their tumors were 42 percent less likely to have a recurrence of the cancer or to die within two years as those who did not receive the vaccine. In Florida, there were 9,415 new melanoma cases in 2023 and 756 melanoma deaths in 2024.
Notorious Ken Paxton’s taxpayer-paid vacations
A ProPublica investigation found that Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton spent $3.3 million in taxpayer funds on nearly 1,000 trips since 2015, with only about one in six having a documented business purpose. Paxton is currently running for the U.S. Senate against Democrat James Talarico.
Meme of the Week
Quote of the Week
“Every time Floridians get closer to the truth about Hope Florida, Republicans find another way to bury it.”
— Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried
Letter of the Week
This must be the most corrupt state in the country. DeSantis, Uthmeier and Moody belong in jail now, along with Trump. God save us!!!
— Joyce Bissonette
Looking Ahead
When I’m not writing this newsletter, I also scribble a current events column for Florida Weekly. You should check it out. Here are some snippets, from there and elsewhere, to help guide your week ahead. (Paid subscribers to this newsletter have full access to the complete Onward Thru the Fog archive.)
Oct. 25. National Greasy Foods Day. Sponsored by the National Association of Gravediggers, this holiday encourages you to splurge on high-cholesterol snacks, then have a stiff drink and a cigarette.
Oct. 26. National Pumpkin Day. Technically, pumpkins are a fruit. Technically, they also make excellent jack-o’-lanterns.
Oct. 27. National American Beer Day. Know who made the first beer in North America? It wasn’t Yuengling. Native American tribes brewed maize-and-agave fermented drinks long before Europeans showed up on these shores.
Oct. 28. Since October is the month we recognize Christopher Columbus, note that on this day in 1492, the Italian explorer, flying under the flag of Spain and believing he had found a route to India, actually made it to Cuba.
Oct. 29. On this day in 1787, Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart’s opera “Don Giovanni” premiered in Prague—inspiring the Austrian musician and rapper Falco to release his most famous work, “Rock me Amadeus,” 198 years later. It became the first German-language song to reach the top of the Billboard Hot 100, which Mozart would have loved, since he considered himself German even though Germany didn't exist as a country in his lifetime.
Oct. 30. Frankenstein Friday, honoring the author Mary Shelley and her 1818 gothic sci-fi novel. It’s always the last Friday of the month because, you know, it’s right before Halloween and the alliteration is irresistible.
Oct. 31. Halloween. This year’s most popular costume is Buddy the Unicorn. He’s a horror movie character.
Nov. 1. Daylight Saving Time ends.
Last Week’s Tropic Press headlines
In case you missed it, here are some of the stories that headlined Tropic Press this past week. Click on the headlines to read the stories.
Donalds holds $33 million cash advantage over Jolly in final weeks of Florida governor’s race
On the ballot: Will Florida remain the nation’s -- and the world’s --death penalty capital?
IT WAS YOUR MONEY: Defying Republican threats, Dems drop another bombshell ad
ASK THE BIRD: Are voting machines safe to use in this election? I’ve heard rumors
Grifter-in-Chief doesn’t just sock it to billionaires--he’s gouging his red-hatters, too
BREAKING NEWS: Courts say ‘no’ to Republican coverup of Hope Florida report and ads
Democrats have a shot at breaking up the Republican supermajorities in the Legislature
News2Use
Check out the latest section on the Tropic Press website: News2Use, a handy reference library with links to useful information, including election deadlines, how to contact your elected representatives, and more.
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Thanks.
J.C. Bruce
